Executive Summary: A Market at a Turning Point
As of early May there are 11,556 active homes on the market—a figure projected to rise to over 18,000 by early October, based on historical trends. Price reductions are accelerating, with 35.9% of active listings having reduced their price, the highest percentage for April since 2012.
29.3% of homes sold above their asking price in April, a sharp decline from previous years and the lowest since 2013. Average price per square foot is dropping, days on market are climbing, and appraisers are increasingly cautious, acting as a governor on price.
This report is a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions, designed to empower sellers with the data and insights needed to make informed decisions. The stakes are high—hundreds of millions of dollars in potential seller equity hinge on the choices made today. This is not a time for wishful thinking or emotional attachment to unrealistic prices. It’s a time for radical truth, strategic preparation, and proactive adjustments.
Sellers must decide whether to get ahead of the market’s downward trajectory. The data is clear, the trends are unmistakable, and the time to act is now.
Introduction: The Market Doesn’t Bend to Your Expectations
Selling a home is one of the most emotional transactions you’ll ever undertake. It’s not just a building—it’s where you’ve built memories, raised a family, or started a new chapter. But the moment you decide to sell, it transforms into something else entirely: a product. And that product must compete in a marketplace that’s indifferent to your personal history or financial goals.
In May 2025, the Front Range real estate market is sending a clear message: a negative price curve is here, driven by an oversupply of homes and a softening of buyer demand. This report doesn’t sugarcoat the reality. It’s a call to action for sellers and agents to face the market head-on, armed with data, strategy, and a commitment to logic over emotion.
The decisions you make in the coming weeks will determine whether you protect your equity or leave money on the table. Inventory is rising rapidly, price reductions are becoming the norm, and buyer hesitancy is growing. Yet, opportunities remain for those who act decisively. Hyper-local variations mean that 45% of homes are still selling at or above their asking price, often with multiple offers, due to unique features like views or street appeal. But for the majority, the market is unforgiving. This report provides a detailed breakdown of the data, actionable strategies for pricing and adjusting, and critical questions to help sellers move from emotional attachment to empowered decision-making.
Amid these challenges, there are also positive signs in the market. Interest rates have recently drifted downward, spurring increased buyer activity, while the rise in inventory fosters a healthier, more balanced market. Buyers are no longer moving at the frenetic pace seen in recent years, and year-to-date contract numbers reflect robust buyer demand. However, this report looks beyond the current moment to the one we can see approaching. By analyzing historical patterns and current conditions, we can predict likely outcomes—equipping sellers and agents to make informed decisions that safeguard their financial interests in the face of a shifting landscape.
The Emotional Barriers to Market Clarity
Anchoring to the List Price
When a home hits the market, the list price often becomes a psychological anchor for sellers. It’s not just a number—it’s a symbol of success, a benchmark for what you believe your home is worth. But here’s the unfiltered truth: the market doesn’t care about your list price. That number doesn’t dictate value—the collective decisions of thousands of buyers do. Clinging to an unrealistic price creates friction, delays your sale, and often leads to a lower net result as the market moves on without you. The list price should be a strategy, not a symbol. Sellers must be prepared to let go of this anchor and adjust to market feedback, or risk being left behind in a softening market.
The Fantasy of "Needed Proceeds"
The market doesn’t care what a seller "needs." It doesn’t care if the equity is earmarked for a boat, retirement, or another home.
Your financial goals are valid, but the market isn’t a negotiation partner. It reflects buyer sentiment, affordability, and competition—not your personal plans. If your desired proceeds don’t align with what the market will bear, you’re faced with a choice: adjust your expectations or reconsider your timing. The market’s message is clear: it will pay what your home is worth, not what you need it to be worth. Accepting this reality is the first step toward a pleasant process and successful sale.
Market Conditions: What the Numbers Say
Inventory Surge
As of Early May, there are 11,556 active homes on the market. Historical patterns from 2020–2024 show an average inventory growth of 62.4% from Week 17 to Weeks 36–41 (late September to early October). Applying this growth rate, we can project inventory will rise to over18,000 homes by early October 2025—a significant increase that signals a deepening buyer’s market.
This surge in supply, outpacing buyer demand, is the driving force behind the negative price curve. More homes mean more competition, pickier buyers, and longer days on market. Sellers who wait to adjust their pricing strategy will be pricing into an even softer market with potentially thousands more competing listings.
Price Adjustments Accelerating
As of early May, 35.9% of all active listings have reduced their asking price—the highest April percentage in 13 years. This isn’t a temporary blip—it’s a market signal that pricing expectations are misaligned with buyer willingness to pay.
Simultaneously, homes closing below the original list price are beginning to show the seasonal shift.
These signals are not minor fluctuations; they are confirmation of a strong seasonal pattern that arrived a little early this year.
Price Per Square Foot: The Hidden Decline
Headlines might claim that prices are holding steady, but the average price per square foot in 2025 has dropped significantly compared to previous years, even as larger homes dominate sales.
While larger homes typically sell at a lower price per square foot, the current decline is more pronounced than expected, signaling broader downward pressure on prices. This metric is often overlooked by sellers and agents, but it’s a critical indicator of market direction—and it’s flashing a warning.
Average Sale Price: A Lagging Indicator of Decline
When viewed in isolation, 2025 prices are holding near historical highs, but this is a misleading snapshot. A fuller picture emerges when factoring in the rising average sold square footage, the declining average price per square foot, and rapidly growing inventory. While historical patterns indicate a typical price decline between now and the end of the year, current data points to a steeper drop than in previous years.
Sale prices capture buyer sentiment from 30 to 45 days prior to close data, so the true impact of today’s market dynamics is yet to fully materialize. If these trends persist, average sale prices are poised to fall further through the summer, intensifying the pressure on sellers who postpone necessary adjustments.
Days on Market and Sale Prices: A Slow Burn
We are already seeing the anticipated early sign of increasing in days on market for 2025. Buyer demand typically peaks in mid-spring and begins to taper by late May or early June. Buyer activity could hold steady or even increase in late spring months with a substantial decline of mortgage interest rates.
But with inventory continuing to grow, days on market will likely climb further, leading to increased seller frustration. Longer days on market means more competition, more pressure to reduce price, and a higher risk of your home becoming “stale” in the eyes of buyers.
Hyper-Local Variations: The Exception, Not the Rule
Despite the broader market downturn, approximately 45% of properties are selling at or above their asking price, some with multiple offers and quick sales. Reminder, these sales are from properties that went under contract in late March to early April, where inventory was lower and buyer demand was peaking.
The hyper-local phenomenon of quick sales and multiple offers is driven by unique property features—think stunning views, exceptional street appeal, or desirable neighborhood amenities. And in some cases, a lucky rabbits foot or four leafed clover.
One street might see a home sell in days, while another nearby languishes for weeks or months, unexplainably even with comparable preparation. These exceptions underscore the nuanced nature of the market, but they don’t change the overall trend: for most sellers, the market is softening, and adjustments are necessary.
The Role of Appraisers in a Declining Market
Appraisers are often an underappreciated influence in the market, yet their role is becoming increasingly significant. Tasked with assessing market trends, they are closely monitoring the same indicators we are: escalating inventory, a growing number of price reductions, and a decreasing share of homes selling above asking price.
In a downward-trending market, appraisers must safeguard mortgage banking loan investments by exercising caution in their valuations. Consequently, even if a buyer forms an emotional connection to a home and offers the full asking price, the appraisal may not align with that offer. This discrepancy can lead to a failed sale or necessitate a price reduction to close the gap. Sellers must anticipate this possibility and incorporate it into their pricing strategy from the outset.
The Dangers of Blaming the Agent for Market Conditions
When a home lingers on the market without offers, sellers often feel the urge to blame their agent, assuming inadequate effort or expertise is the cause. Unfortunately, that blame is occasionally well placed, but more often than not misdirects responsibility, overshadowing the true culprit: the market itself.
In May 2025, the Front Range market is facing a negative price curve, fueled by a sharp rise in inventory. These conditions are beyond any agent’s control, no matter how effectively they help prepare and market a property. Pointing fingers at the agent risks damaging a vital partnership, leaving sellers isolated and less prepared to tackle the market’s challenges. It also stalls necessary adjustments, allowing the home to become a “stale” listing, which can result in a lower sale price as buyer interest fades.
The alternative is a cooperative, data-driven mindset that prioritizes market realities over emotional, misplaced blame. Rather than faulting the agent, sellers should commit to weekly reviews of hyper-local market data—such as competing listings, price reductions, recent sales, and showing feedback. This transparent approach helps sellers understand the broader market forces at play and why their home isn’t selling. By collaborating, sellers and agents can make informed adjustments to pricing, enhance property condition, or adapt strategies to meet buyer expectations, transforming frustration into action.
This teamwork empowers sellers to stay proactive, safeguarding their equity in a declining market instead of losing ground to misdirected frustration.
Conclusion: Act Now or Risk Falling Behind
The Front Range real estate market in May 2025 is at a tipping point. Inventory is climbing, prices are softening, and buyer hesitancy is growing. The homes that sell this year will be those that are properly prepared, accurately priced, and backed by sellers who are willing to face the market’s reality. Waiting for the market to bend to your expectations is not a strategy—it’s a recipe for frustration and financial loss.
You have a choice: get ahead of the negative price curve by pricing competitively, preparing your home to stand out and making adjustments based on the markets reaction, or risk not selling at all. If you choose to wait, understand the risks: inventory is projected to be over 18,000 homes by early October, and historical trends suggest a modest recovery at best in early 2026. For those buying a replacement home, there’s a silver lining—the same market conditions that lower your sale price also reduce the cost of your next purchase.
This report is your roadmap to navigating the 2025 Front Range market with clarity and confidence. The data is clear, the trends are undeniable, and the stakes are high. Decide wisely—and act now.
*Front Range is defined as the 7-County Denver & Boulder Metro Area
